Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

Coopetition in New Product Development Alliances: Advantages and Tensions for Incremental and Radical Innovation

Coopetition (collaboration between competitors) can facilitate product innovation, but there is still debate about how it is suited to radical or incremental innovation. This paper argues that the early and later phases of coopetitive new product development (NPD) pose different benefits and risks for the innovation types. Building on the tensions approach to value creation and appropriation, we develop a series of hypotheses on the role of coopetition in NPD alliances and focal firm's innovation output. The hypotheses are tested on a quantitative data set of 1049 NPD alliances in the German medical and machinery sectors. The results show that, while coopetition is advantageous for incremental innovation in both pre‐launch and launch phases, radical innovation benefits from coopetition in the launch phase only.     

Toward a gender politics of aging

The article proposes a Gender Politics of Aging approach to the study of aging societies. The approach recognizes the feminization of old age, ageism’s roots in sexist discourse, and the need to recognize the role of politics in driving demographic debates. Drawing together arguments from feminist gerontology and political demography, the article argues that the intersection of politics and gender must be considered if appropriate responses to an older, feminized demography are to be produced. I conclude that the work of aging feminists provides a rich vein of research and praxis from which a gender politics of aging approach can draw.     

Examining Facilitative Configurations of Entrepreneurially Oriented Growth: An Information Processing Perspective

This study examines how the relationship between entrepreneurial orientation and firm growth is shaped by learning orientation in technologically sophisticated environments. We draw upon an information processing perspective that emphasizes alignment between information processing demands and support mechanisms. Using data from 116 small to medium‐sized enterprises in the Netherlands, we observe that the ability of entrepreneurial orientation to drive firm growth greatly depends on the joint consideration of technological sophistication and learning orientation. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of how configurations of strategic orientations and environmental considerations work in concert to influence the efficacy of organizational entrepreneurial efforts dramatically.     

Exploring in Silence: Hearing and Deaf Infants Explore Objects Differently Before Cochlear Implantation

Infant development has rarely been informed by the behavior of infants with sensory differences despite increasing recognition that infant behavior itself creates sensory learning opportunities. The purpose of this study of object exploration was to compare the behavior of hearing and deaf infants, with and without cochlear implants, in order to identify the effects of profound sensorineural hearing loss on infant exploration before cochlear implantation, the behavioral effects of access to auditory feedback after cochlear implantation, and the sensory motivation for exploration behaviors performed by hearing infants as well. The results showed that 9‐month‐old deaf infants explored objects as often as hearing infants but they used systematically different approaches and less variation before compared to after cochlear implantation. Potential associations between these early experiences and later learning are discussed in the context of embodied developmental theory, comparative studies, and research with adults. The data call for increased recognition of the active sensorimotor nature of infant learning and future research that investigates differences in sensorimotor experience as potential mechanisms in later learning and sequential memory development.     

Tempered Mittag-Leffler Lévy processes

In this article, we introduce tempered Mittag-Leffler Lévy processes (TMLLP). TMLLP is represented as tempered stable subordinator delayed by a gamma process. Its probability density function and Lévy density are obtained in terms of infinite series and Mittag-Leffler function, respectively. Asymptotic forms of the tails and moments are given. A step-by-step procedure of the parameters estimation and simulation of sample paths is given. We also provide main results available for Mittag-Leffler Lévy processes (MLLP) and some extensions which are not available in a collective way in a single article. Our results generalize and complement the results available on Mittag-Leffler distribution and MLLP in several directions. Further, the asymptotic forms of the moments of the first-exit times of the TMLLP are also discussed.     

Developing a Rubric for Supervision of Students Counseling LGBTQ Clients

More than 100 pieces of anti-lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender (LGBT) legislation are active in 2018. In this current political climate of “conscience clause” legislation, counselor educators and supervisors are poised to adopt more holistic practices in assessing and evaluating student and supervisee readiness to work with LGBT queer (Q) clients. The purpose of this article is to present a dispositional framework for assessment and evaluation and introduce the flexibility, integrity, awareness, stability, compassion, and openness (FIASCO) rubric of professional counseling dispositions. Two court cases, Keeton v. Anderson-Wiley and Ward v. Wilbanks, are used as case examples for applying the FIASCO rubric to situations involving LGBTQ clients.     

How leader role identity influences the process of leader emergence: A social network analysis

Contemporary theories on leadership development emphasize the importance of having a leader identity in building leadership skills and functioning effectively as leaders. We build on this approach by unpacking the role leader identity plays in the leader emergence process. Taking the perspective that leadership is a dynamic social process between group members, we propose a social network-based process model whereby leader role identity predicts network centrality (i.e., betweenness and indegree), which then contributes to leader emergence. We test our model using a sample of 88 cadets participating in a leadership development training course. In support of our model, cadets who possess a stronger leader role identity at the beginning of the course were more likely to emerge as leaders. However this relationship was only mediated by one form of network centrality, indegree centrality, reflecting one's ability to build relationships within one's group. Implications for research and practice are discussed.     

Predicting the Risk of Biological Invasions Using Environmental Similarity and Transport Network Connectedness

Understanding the risk of biological invasions associated with particular transport pathways and source regions is critical for implementing effective biosecurity management. This may require both a model for physical connectedness between regions, and a measure of environmental similarity, so as to quantify the potential for a species to be transported from a given region and to survive at a destination region. We present an analysis of integrated biosecurity risk into Australia, based on flights and shipping data from each global geopolitical region, and an adaptation of the “range bagging” method to determine environmental matching between regions. Here, we describe global patterns of environmental matching and highlight those regions with many physical connections. We classify patterns of global invasion risk (high to low) into Australian states and territories. We validate our analysis by comparison with global presence data for 844 phytophagous insect pest species, and produce a list of high‐risk species not previously known to be present in Australia. We determined that, of the insect pest species used for validation, the species most likely to be present in Australia were those also present in geopolitical regions with high transport connectivity to Australia, and those regions that were geographically close, and had similar environments.